In EU countries, the rejection of asylum applications usually entails a return decision, evoking an obligation to leave the country within a certain period of time. Yet, substantial numbers of rejected asylum seekers do not comply with this legal obligation, at least not within the specified time. As a consequence, rejected asylum seekers are frequently stuck in limbo, at the interplay of (irregular) stay, voluntary return, onward migration, and forced return. Being a hard-to-reach and vulnerable population group, little is known about im-/mobility trajectories of rejected asylum seekers. Yet, a better understanding of the im-/mobility trajectories of asylum seekers who are legally obliged to leave the EU is vital for the design of adequate return and regularisation policies – especially in the light of current policy shifts towards asylum seekers with rejection or revocation decisions across different EU countries.
In this presentation, Laura Peitz presents unique insights into im-/mobility trajectories based on administrative data of the German Central Register of Foreign Nationals. The dataset used comprises socio-demographic information as well as longitudinal data on entry and exit, asylum and residence status of all rejected asylum seekers in Germany between 2013 and 2022). Using time-to-event data analysis, Laura traces im-/mobility patterns over time and shows whether, when, and in which ways (voluntary return, forced return, regularization) states of limbo are ended. The presentation shows that voluntary return and regularization play similarly important roles in ending the legal obligation to leave, but with very different temporal dynamics. At the same time, forced return plays a noticeable minor part. Heterogeneity analyses show differing patterns between groups of rejected asylum seekers, such as across types of tolerated stay and countries of origin.
Speaker:
Laura Peitz (German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees).
Chair:
Martin Ruhs (Migration Policy Centre, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, EUI).